功能区土地利用碳收支空间分异及碳补偿分区——以武汉城市圈为例

开展功能区土地利用碳收支评估并构建碳补偿分区优化框架,对于制定适应各功能区低碳策略、指导补偿额度流向、推动区域协调发展具有重要现实意义。以武汉城市圈县域为基本单元,在分析主体功能区划下土地利用碳收支空间分异特征的基础上,借助标准显示性比较优势指数法、SOM-K-means模型、二维关联矩阵等方法,对武汉城市圈进行了碳补偿类型区划分及优化。结果表明：武汉城市圈各县域土地利用碳排放总量地区差异显著,呈现“西高东低,中心最高”空间分布格局;主体功能区划下土地利用碳排放、碳吸收均具有明显空间分异特征,碳吸收与碳排放呈现出一定程度的相对空间分布趋势;武汉城市圈共有16个碳补偿支付区、11个碳补偿获补区以及12个碳补偿平衡区;结合主体功能区规划战略目标,最终形成7类碳补偿空间优化区,并对每一类型区提出了相应的低碳发展方向及策略。     

Quantitative risk assessment: How realistic are those frequency assumptions?

Although much has changed in recent decades in how the consequences are treated in risk assessment of major industrial accidents, estimation of frequencies still appears to be largely based on values from several decades ago. This paper reviews briefly some of the implications of this, drawing on lessons not only from the process industries but also from other not so obviously relevant fields such as aerospace and finance, where the significance of such factors such as organizational culture, normalization of deviance, ownership, demographic change, etc. is becoming increasingly recognized in the analysis and hence the control of risk.Failure to consider such factors and their effects can pose a problem, because risk assessment is not simply an abstract concept but can have a real influence on the level of risk. If protective measures such as the safety culture of the site, etc. can be shown to significantly change the risk zone, this can persuade the risk generator to improve those factors or take other steps to reduce the risk such as reducing the inventory in the process. Conversely, assessments conducted for well-run companies may misrepresent the risk if the site ownership changes to a financial holding company with a focus on maximizing short-term profit and resale of the assets, and it can be difficult even for well-motivated management to justify protective measures if they produce no apparent difference in the risk.This paper introduces these and other issues for consideration in the symposium which follows.     

中国燃煤部门大气汞排放协同控制效果评估及未来预测

汞污染已成为一个全球性的环境问题,我国是世界上大气汞排放量最大的国家,在批准《关于汞的水俣公约》之后,我国的汞污染控制面临严峻的挑战.燃煤部门是我国大气汞排放的第一大部门,也是履约的重点部门.本研究建立了我国燃煤部门2010年和2012年的大气汞排放清单,评估了"大气污染防治行动计划"("大气十条")对燃煤部门大气汞排放的协同控制效果.同时,使用情景分析法,对2020年和2030年燃煤部门的大气汞排放进行了预测,分析了未来不同控制措施的减排效果.结果表明,2010年中国燃煤电厂、燃煤工业锅炉和民用燃煤炉灶的大气汞排放量的最佳估计值分别为100.0、72.5和18.0 t."大气十条"的实施可使我国燃煤部门到2017年比2012年减少92.5 t的大气汞排放.能源结构的调整、洗煤比例的提高和除尘设备的升级改造对于大气汞的减排效果最显著.在最佳估计情景下,2020年和2030年燃煤部门大气汞排放量分别为128.5和80.0 t,与2010年相比分别降低了33%和58%;在最严格控制情景下,2020年和2030年燃煤部门大气汞的排放量分别为103.2和50.9 t,相较2010年分别下降了46%和73%.     

江苏省10年环境质量变化趋势分析

对江苏省 1990年～ 1999年的环境空气质量、地面水域、城市声环境、固体废物的状况及变化趋势进行了综述与分析。指出 ,10年来全省城市环境空气质量总体上有所好转 ,地面水域污染仍较严重 ,区域环境噪声和道路交通噪声等效声级持续小幅下降 ,工业固体废物排放量下降明显。     

Influence of new generic frequencies on the QRA calculations for land use planning purposes in Walloon region (Belgium)

In Europe, the article 12 of the “Seveso” Directive focuses on land use planning (LUP) around major hazard plants and imposes to keep a sufficient distance between a major hazard plant and populated areas. In Belgium, the LUP is treated at the regional level. The regional authority defines the policy and manages the LUP according to the quantified risk. The quantified external risk, around each Seveso company in the Walloon Region, is assessed by a unique technical expert, the Faculté Polytechnique de Mons, by means of a full probabilistic approach (QRA). This QRA methodology uses accident generic frequencies published by the Flemish Region (Aminal, 2004). In 2009-2010, the quantification of the external risk of the 90 walloon Seveso plants will be completed, based on this set of generic frequencies. However, the Flemish Region recently published a new set of generic frequencies (LNE, 2009), which, in some cases, are quite different of the previous ones for some equipment. This paper discusses the influence of the new frequency data on the quantified risk. An overview of the changes induced by the new set of data will be presented, as well as their impact on the already defined "consultation zones" in which decisions are made concerning the compatibility of the land use and the intensity of risk.     

九十年代以来全球重大天气气候事件回顾

本文首先揭示了九十年代全球变暖背景下北半球中高纬度地区冬季的异常冷暖气候事件及其相应的环流形势。着重回顾了全球热浪、暴雨洪涝、大范围持续干旱及热带风暴等重大灾害性天气气候事件及其影响，并对其形成的可能原因进行了一些诊断分析。     

城市重大事故应急演习方法研究---演习目标及其评价准则

应急演习是城市开展重大事故应急准备过程的主要任务之一,应急演习目标是检查演习效果,评价应急组织、人员应急准备状态和能力的指标.本文介绍了可供选择的十八项演习目标和各项目标的评价准则,同时介绍了分组选择演习目标的方法.     

长沙市城市公共安全综合试点方案

简要介绍了城市公共安全综合试点项目的启动背景 ,分析了长沙市目前的公共安全现状 ,提出了综合试点方案 ,包括建立长沙市公共安全基础数据库 ,开展重大危险源辨识和生命线应急能力评估 ,建立长沙市重大事故预防控制体系 ,建立长沙市应急联动系统 ,编制长沙市公共安全规划等五部分。该方案既结合了长沙的实际又具有较高的起点 ,实施思路清晰 ,它的实施对提高长沙市的公共安全水平具有重要意义且试点成果具有一定的典型性和示范性。     

焚烧炉气相燃烧工况条件优化的分析与计算

对固体废弃物焚烧过程进行了简要分析，认为设计好气相燃烧工况，使挥发性组分完全燃烧，是控制主要有害有机组分的破坏去除率的关键。计算了（１）在动力控制条件下，不同温度时的多种有机物ＤＲＥ达９９．９９％所需的时间；（２）在扩散控制条件下，不同粒径固体废弃物的不同分析量挥发性组分完全燃烧所需的时间。讨论了炉内温度，气体在炉内停留时间，氧浓度等因素至ＤＲＥ的影响。     

重大危险源控制技术研究现状及若干问题探讨

本文论述了重大危险源的定义，辨识标准及重大危险源控制系统；介绍了国外重大危险源控制技术的研究和应用进展；对建立我国重大危险源控制系统进行了探讨，提出了尽快制定我国重大工业危险源控制法规、重大危险源辨识标准以及建立分级监察和控制体系等建议。